There is no mandate

In the early morning hours after election night, Donald Trump declared "an unprecedented and powerful mandate" as returns showed him ahead in all the swing states. Speaking from his West Palm Beach estate, it is unclear if Trump was basking in the glow of victory or simply relieved he will, indeed, escape accountability from prosecution for, among other things, attempting to overturn the results of the last presidential election.

In a race described as a "coin flip" for weeks, Trump ultimately swept all of the swing states and even led in the popular vote. A first for a Republican presidential candidate in twenty years. His campaign and allies were quick to deploy Trumpian hyperbole as justification for their agenda coming January. American First Policy Institute, home to multiple incoming cabinet appointments, led with this boast: "This victory is a mandate..."

These assertions met with some resistance in the press.

• Washington Post, November 7: "Trump's mandate isn't as 'powerful' as he suggests. Here's why."
• New York Magazine, November 7: "Trump's 'Unprecedented' and 'Powerful Mandate' Is a Lie"
• NBC News, November 8: "Trump says he has an 'unprecedented mandate.' The facts tell a different story."
• The Nation, November 12: "No, Trump Did Not Win in a Landslide—nor Did He Secure a Mandate"

As ballots continued to be counted—particularly in California which accepts mail ballots with election day postmarks to arrive as late as one week later—pronouncements of a mandate fall apart.

Trump's popular vote margin shrunk to around 1.58 percent as of publication. His raw vote margin is 300,000 less than Hillary Clinton's margin in 2016. He also failed to win a majority of votes cast, slipping to 49.85 percent. Senate Republicans failed to pickup seats in four swing states. Trump carried Arizona and Nevada comfortably but Democrats Ruben Gallego and Jacky Rosen emerged victorious in their races. Democrats Tammy Baldwin and Elissa Slotkin held onto two more seats in "blue wall" states, Wisconsin and Michigan, narrowly won by Trump. In the House, Republicans hold a razor thin majority that is imperiled by the transition's raiding party for administration appointments.

Why does this matter?

The back-and-forth over whether or not Donald Trump's 2024 victory amounts to a "mandate" may seem like inside baseball to many. A jostling between the two parties. But there are implications for how Trump's victory is perceived. Did the country's mood swing to the right and Democrats must play catchup? Or did Biden, and later Harris, alienate elements of their winning coalition from four years ago?

Trump riding back into Washington under the banner of a "decisive victory" four years after his failed multipronged attempted coup is a psychological shock to the system. It opens the door to untold possibilities. To do so, he must continue to sell the fiction that the country "swung to the right" and delivered him a mandate.

1. Enforce cohesion within the Republican caucus. Trump wants loyalists in senior positions throughout his administration including the cabinet. These include choices far outside the mainstream with highly problematic backgrounds. Several of his selections are accused sexual predators. (Trump, of course, is an adjudicated rapist.) Trump and his team want to demonstrate he can do anything he wants. But there are signs that this is overstated. Rick Scott, Trump's choice for Senate Majority Leader in the new Congress, was knocked out on the first ballot after he secured only 13 votes from his caucus. The spectacular flameout of Matt Gaetz as a credibly accused child sex trafficking pedophile appears to have tested the limits for Senate Republicans. This independence, however, is unlikely to hold, especially as threats of Elon Musk-financed primaries become a reality. Republicans largely avoid tempting primaries by straying too far.
2. Provide political cover to deliver on the Project 2025 agenda. Democratic efforts to elevate the Heritage Foundation-led Project 2025 proved to be their most successful of the cycle. September polling from NBC News showed over 60 percent of Americans viewed the plan negatively, including 51 percent that viewed it "very negatively." Only 4 percent of voters said they viewed it positively. Trump publicly disavowed it and conservatives distanced the campaign. The press reported these denials despite knowing full well they were lies. And lo and behold, several prominent figures of the effort were named to Trump's administration, including the project's principal architect who told a hidden camera Trump was lying all along, Russell Vought, who will serve as director of the OMB.
3. Sucker centrist Democrats to provide bipartisan cover for his unpopular agenda. If Donald Trump can successfully win the message battle over what the election says about the country, he will have a golden opportunity to lure centrist Democrats to provide a veneer of bipartisanship for some of his agenda items, including deportations or attacks on the trans community. There are grumblings from elected leaders to media allies casting blame on progressives and diverse coalition which makes up the backbone of the Democratic Party.
4. Bait Democrats into acceptance of a realignment of the parties without a realignment of the electorate. In an election where most observers expected no call on a winner for a few days, Trump's election night victory proved to be somewhat of a shock. The initial analysis spoke of a "decisive" victory with voting patterns showing a uniform swing to the right. Trump improved his numbers with black men and Latino men. He narrowed Democrats' margin with the youth vote by capturing more young men. Undoubtedly Democrats, often accused of taking core constituencies for granted come election time, have work to do. But nothing could be better for Trump and Republicans than if Democrats blow it all up and return to the days of running as Republican Lite by adopting a restrictionist immigration policy and taking a harsher line on trans acceptance.

So what happened?

A deeper look is in the works on this question but the long and short of it is that Americans were hit hard by the weakened supply chain and COVID-induced inflation as relief checks and direct cash payments for families dried up. Voters were hit again by high costs at the pump, sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the global response, filtered throughout the economy. Meanwhile, Joe Biden's steadfast support for Israel's disastrous war—and Harris' refusal to substantively break with him—eroded support among young people and core constituencies.

The pandemic four years ago compelled states to adopt mail voting as a health precaution, resulting in a 6 percent increase in turnout from 2016. Joe Biden earned 16 million more votes than Hillary Clinton four years prior. Donald Trump increased his vote total by 12 million. With pandemic fears far less of a concern, 2024 was carried out under conditions closer to that of 2016 than 2020. Trump increased his raw votes by a modest 2 million. Harris' support dramatically fell off by 7 million fewer voters. While Trump likely picked off some Biden voters from 2020, evidence suggests Harris failed to turnout Democrats.

Exit polls showed Democrats made up 31 percent of the electorate in 2024, down from 37 percent in 2020. Republican turnout increased only 1 percent. Independents, however, jumped from 26 percent to 34 percent of the electorate, outpacing Democratic turnout. Harris narrowly won independents by 3 points. Biden carried them by 13. It is possible Trump closed this gap through his campaign's strategy to turnout low propensity voters, many of whom are unlikely to be registered with a party.

Gore Vidal famously noted that "no one remembers anything before Monday morning. Everything is a blank. They have no history." This is a perfect distillation of voters' perception of the Trump presidency, particularly his bungled COVID response. But one thing Trump and Republicans learned a long time ago is to repeat phrases over and over. This includes his assertion he led "the greatest economy in the history of the world." Frustrated voters responded.

Four years ago, Joe Biden swept Trump out of office rallying a coalition to come together to save the soul of the nation. In January, he hands the reigns of power back to the man he once defeated. There will be another battle waging. This one for the soul of his party.